February 1, at 8:
Afflicting the Comfortable since Thursday, September 22, UH releases poll with point Clinton lead in Harris County If you recall, I made fun of the lady at the beauty shop over a week ago for advancing this exact rumor. So she gets to feed me some crow.
Poll results released today by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs show that Hillary Clinton has a point lead over Donald Trump among registered voters in Harris County, the largest county in Texas and third largest in the nation.
If the numbers hold, it would represent the widest margin of victory for a Democratic presidential nominee in Harris County sincethe year Lyndon B. Johnson was elected president.
The "extremely likely" screen, with the four-point lead, is probably the closest to accurate, FWIW. Even if ten is the margin, I simply don't think it can hold all the way to Election Day, but it's more than enough to give blue partisan hopes a big boost.
The rest of the poll's results, however, won't bold is mine. In the race for Harris County District Attorney, among the voters extremely likely to cast a ballot this fall, incumbent Republican Devon Anderson narrowly bested Democrat Kim Ogg, 30 percent to 29 percent, while incumbent Republican Ron Hickman led Democrat Ed Gonzalez 36 percent to 30 percent in the contest for sheriff.
A plurality of voters is unsure about their preference for district attorney 47 percent and sheriff 36 percent. A year ago during the mayor's race, UH returned a similarly strange polling result: Sylvester Turner with a ten-point lead, Bill King and Adrian Garcia tied for second, Chris Bell a close fourth, and a massive quantity of undecideds.
I pooh-poohed their poll thenand I'm pooh-pooh-ing these two county results now. Charles says I'm confusing my Cougar polls here. Fair enough; I sit corrected. I still pooh on both.
For one thing, that's an enormous number of GOP split tickets. I would have expected the opposite in the sheriff's race to be true, in fact, irrespective of the presidential. This is a data point, but an awfully strange one. The mighty Kuffner has weighed inand disapproves of the poll to some greater degree than I do.
No issues with his take. But I thought about these numbers awhile overnight, and did some back-of-the-envelope math: Significantly less so Clinton and Anderson in the DA's race; everybody understands that one will be very close all the way to Election Night.The simulation Disaster in Franklin County highlights the role of public health personnel, with emphasis on the public health nurse because the nurse is often a first responder to such a disaster.
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